88% watches videos online, 53% is subscribed to a video service

53% use a subscription based TV/movie service. The subtle increase in watching video clips online follows the same upward trend as managing a profile on a social network and visiting a friends social network page.
Thinking about using the internet, which of the following activities have you ever done?

Source: WAVE Social media research Netherlands 2017, NL16+

- Reach YouTube 82%, Netflix 27% -

Horizon/ZiggoGo also shows a strong increase, however in November it has been replaced by ZiggoGo. Netflix reach is difficult to determine since Smart TV App usage is not registered, so reach is at least 27%.
Yearly comparison monthly reach – NL 16+

Source: GfK DAM

Video platforms show highest reach in age groups 13-19 and 20-34 years, but 50+ does watch online video.

Top 10 video sites/apps monthly reach

Source: GfK DAM

Decline in TV minutes continues for younger groups

The decline in minutes in front of the TV continues: for the 2 younger groups it has lost 1/3 in 5 years time. The older the viewer, the more time they spend watching television, and the smaller the decline. Age 50+ have continued to spend more than 4 hours a day watching TV over the past 7 years.
Time spent watching TV in minutes/day

Source: SKO TV viewing, 6 days delay included. 2017 data Jan-Oct

Annual Decrease of a quarter of an hour for AB1

After 2014 (FIFA world cup), TV minutes decline for shoppers+child, AB1 and lower social class. Especially AB1 is showing a sharp decrease: annual decrease of 10 minutes to a quarter of an hour.

Source: SKO TV viewing, 6 days delay included. 2017 data Jan-Oct

Delayed viewing increases by a minute a year

Delayed viewing increases only slowly – levels are higher for older groups

Source: SKO TV viewing, 6 days delay included. 2017 data Jan-Oct

If we use a device other than a regular TV for watching AV content, our viewing behavior is completely different

Devices for watching AV content
Viewing behavior per device

Source: MediaTijd 2015

YouTube is the only online video platform comparable to TV channels (in terms of reach), and moving up in rank

Youtube has continued to grow, it has now reached the 3rd position
Weekly reach AV channels 2015 - NL16+
Weekly reach AV channels 2016 - NL16+
Weekly reach AV channels 2017 - NL16+

Source: SKO, GfK DAM, October 2017

Nl 16+ light viewers

Among light viewers Youtube has continued to grow.
TV channels continue to decline annually by a couple of %.
Weekly reach AV channels 2015 - Nl 16+ light viewers
Weekly reach AV channels 2016 - Nl 16+ light viewers
Weekly reach AV channels 2017 - Nl 16+ light viewers

Source: SKO TV viewing, 6 days delay included. 2017 data Jan-Oct

The graph builder allows you to crunch, slice and dice the raw data we used for our report. Check method for more info.

Source: SKO for TV, GfK-Cross Media Link for Online and Mobile Devices

Target audience:

Age

Gender

Social class

The forecast gives you a sense of the current trends. Check method for more info.

Source: SKO for TV, GfK-Cross Media Link for Online and Mobile Devices

Target audience:

Age

Gender

Social class

About

This website is a result of a partnership between Mediabrands, GfK and Google.

Mediabrands Marketing Sciences is part of IPG and the intelligence, data and tech unit of Mediabrands in the Netherlands. Our goal is to measure, predict and optimize the effects of advertising investments of all clients of Mediabrands, including UM, Initiative and Traffic4U.

GfK is the trusted source of relevant market and consumer information that enables its clients to make smarter decisions. More than 13,000 market research experts combine their passion with GfK’s long-standing data science experience. This allows GfK to deliver vital global insights matched with local market intelligence from more than 100 countries.

Google’s mission is to organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful. Google provided funding for this study.

Method

Executive summary

Mobile device ownership in The Netherlands has stabilized and almost all Dutch households have a connected or digital TV. This resulted in 2015 to be a turning point for watching linear TV, across all ages. Especially among young people (13-19 years) the declining trend is imminent (-20%). And this young group displays the highest reach for online video content platforms, like YouTube and Netflix. But also people between 35-49 years watch less live TV, and live TV viewing time stabilized for the older 50+ years group. With the current data and research available it is difficult to determine whether the decrease in linear TV viewing has shifted towards online video viewing. Video-landscape.nl gives insights in this trend by combining all available data sets of offline, online and mobile video consumption in the Netherlands.

Introducion

In 2014 Mediabrands Marketing Sciences initiated a research study to report a full overview of trends in online video and TV consumption in The Netherlands. The report is based on data gathered by SKO, GfK Cross Media Link, Trends in Digitale Media and other sources. In 2015, we have gathered new data to show the latest trends and developments in video consumption. The study was conducted in collaboration with Google and GfK.

Data

In this study we have used a variety of data sources to make a complete overview of TV and online video consumption in The Netherlands:
- GfK Crossmedia Link by use of DAM and self analysed raw data.
- SKO (Stichting Kijkonderzoek); SKO is responsible for the reporting and monitoring of TV ratings.
- GfK Trends in digital media; provides an overview of device ownership in The Netherlands.
- Media:tijd 2014; provides insight in time spent on various activities such as media.
- Wave; Mediabrand’s own international social media research

Data

GfK Crossmedia Link contains tracking (sensus) data of the online and offline video consumption of around 8.000 Dutch consumers on three types of devices (more info here):
1. Home TV viewing behaviour measured via Smartphone audiomatching
2. Software registered home desktop/laptop internet behaviour
3. Software registered Smartphone/Tablet internet behaviour (iOS and Android)

More information about this study please contact menno.van.der.steen@mbww.com

Modeling and number crunching

The analysts of Mediabrands Marketing Sciences have crunched the enormous ‘GfK Crossmedia Link’ big data set using MySQL and R. Since new devices, operating software and browser software is constantly changing, there were a lot of challenges to manage the analysis of the data. Normally measurement technology follows a few weeks after changes are detected, resulting in a faulty data set during those weeks. We have tried to compensate these faults by leaving this data out of our analysis data set as much as possible. It will show though in the Graph Builder. That is why you will see some strange bumps in the graphs... See the disclaimer for more information.

Target Audiences

In this study we selected a limited amount of 17 different audience groups that are commonly used in marketing and media. Those are based on the following: 16+ M&V, 16+M, 16+V, 20-49M, 20-49V, 20-34M, 20-34V, 35-49M, 35-49V, 50+M, 50+V, 16+ social classes (AB1, B2, C, D) and 20-49 social classes. The reason for the limited amout of segments is to keep the perfomance of this website reasonable.

Disclaimer

General remarks

The study is based on the GfK Crossmedia Link thus for small channels (not viewed by many people), the graphs for those channels might show large fluctuations. We worked with capped data which means that viewing times are cut off after 10 minutes for the mobile panel and 12 minutes for the online panel. This leads to underestimation of the online and mobile video consumption for channels like RTL XL, NPO, Netflix…
The activity of the users is determined differently for the 3 panels:
1. TV panel: Active between the start month and end month of the person (start month: first month in which active before the 10th of that month, end month: active after 20th)
2. Mobile panel: Active in a month when active in the first 15 days and active after the 15th. (at least one row in each period)
3. Online panel: Active in months with a maximum gap of 1 month and the start & end month restrictions corresponding to the TV panel (1).
All irregularities in the data are shown in the Graph Builder in order to report the data as transparant as possible. It is also very difficult to compensate measurement errors because their impact differ per channel, incident, target audience and time.
There is a hidden impact due to the challenges of panel management (people leaving and entering the panel, level of participation) that we cannot quantify in this study.

Data challenges

- TV

We extracted SKO figures from the MBS (Media Buying Systems) software. We switched from the GfK Cross Media Link panel to SKO to prevent (illegitimate) comparisons.

- Online Devices

Video viewing online is measured through a software application on the desktop or laptop of the panel member. It registrates all URL's that are visited in the browser that the consumer is using. In August 2014 YouTube switched to a SSL/HTTPS environment which caused that YouTube could not be fully measured. In July 2015 a fix came to hand for Explorer and Chrome which led to more realistic viewing figures.
In April 2016 Firefox 45 had a bug which caused a measuring discomposure. Chrome (versions 16.0 and 16.1.7) caused a growing amount of activity to be inmeasurable from February up until June 2017.

- Mobile Devices

Video viewing on mobile devices are measured with an application installed on the device as well (from January till August 2014). IOS8 caused trouble for this methology from the 17th of September 2014 until the 3rd of November 2014. This resulted Gfk to develop a new measurement method. From November 3 GfK started to use a new methodology based on a proxy connected with the router (WIFI) of the household of the panel member. So it doesn't measure mobile video viewing using a mobile network provider but it worked with IOS8. The challenges weren't over though... Lollypop (OS for android) has made it impossible to measure impressions, from the 12th of November 2014. From 11-2014 until 8-2015 missing page impressions from Firefox browser (approximately 15% of panel).
From September 2016 IOS is being measured through VPN. Certain apps are no longer measurable (WhatsApp and Netflix are the most important ones). In June 2017 the VPN measurement system was down for approximately 5 days.

Predictions

Part of this study is a rough prediction of future video consumption between now and 2020. For this we created an econometric model including the influence of seasonality, weather, trends, special events with a big impact on (linear) TV consumption like the Olympics and Soccer Championships. Since models had to be made for each target audience and each channel, we used a stepwise regression for each model. 580 models were estimated with a stepwise regression in both directions. The model selectiono was by AIC. Of course we cannot take new technological developments (like new devices for instance) into account since we don't know there future impact. We used TV and Mobile video consumption data because there were some measurement issues with desktop/laptop viewing data.

As everybody already know, but sometimes forgets, is that we cannot predict the future. A model is always a simplification of reality and that also applies to the forecast in this study. The predictions in the Graph Builder can be filtered per channel and per audience type. This way you can play with the future yourself. Bear in mind that these predictions are calculated automatically based on a search algorithm for the best fitting model. We didn't had the time to check all 500+ possible models and their outcomes manually. So you probably will find inconsistencies with your own expectations.

We only predicted on the dataset of TV and Mobile because of a problem in the measurement of desktop/laptop video consumption in 2014 and 2015.

Contact

Please contact us for more information:
Mediabrands Marketing Sciences
+31 20 7993100
Menno.van.der.steen@mbww.com

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